New inter-city trains herald rail renaissance for Iraq

Investment in new Chinese-made inter-city trains, as well as modern train control and communication systems, signal the Iraqi government’s intention to rebuild the once impressive state‑run railways.

Chinese-made train for Baghdad-Basra route

By Peter Feuilherade

This article was first published in The Middle East magazine, London, May 2014 issue.

2014 marks the centenary of Iraq’s railway network. German engineers laid the foundations during the Ottoman Empire in 1912, as part of the planned Berlin-Istanbul-Baghdad Railway. The line was completed in 1914, connecting Baghdad with the town of Dujayl, 60 km to the north. By the late 1990s, the network was handling some three million tonnes of freight and 2.8 million passenger journeys a year.

Now Iraq’s railways, like much of the transport infrastructure, are dilapidated after decades of neglect and war, and in urgent need of repair and expansion. Most freight is transported by road.

The assets of Iraqi Republic Railways (IRR), owned and operated by the government, include about 2,850 km of track, some 127 stations, 131 locomotives and 1,900 units of rolling stock.

Several lines are still in use, from Baghdad to Basra, Samarra and Fallujah, and Mosul to Rabia, among others, providing a mix of passenger and freight services.

Upgrading the network and restoring other lines are priorities in the government’s reconstruction efforts. However, railway company officials cited by Reuters news agency admitted in 2013 that the volumes of passengers and freight carried did not generate enough income to cover employees' salaries, let alone revamp the network.

The delivery of the first of a fleet of 10 Chinese-made inter-city trains in February 2014 marked a major step forward in the plan to restore and develop Iraq’s national railway system. The contract is worth US$ 115 million, and each train will comprise two diesel power cars and eight steel bodied trailers. The trains will run on the Baghdad-Basra route at speeds of up to 160 km/h. They will have a capacity of 343 passengers in air-conditioned seated and sleeping accommodation, with catering facilities and on-board entertainment. The trains have been designed to function in the high temperatures and wind-blown dust of Iraq’s desert environment.

In 2012 IRR finished building a 32 km line between Mussayab, south of Baghdad, and the holy city of Karbala to transport hundreds of thousands of pilgrims during Shi’i religious festivals.

The company has also invested US$ 60 million in a state of the art computer based train control and microwave communication system.

Regional transit hub

IRR plans to rehabilitate some 300 km of railways in central and southern Iraq, build other lines in major cities to link them to the national network, and construct a metro system with 14 stations in Baghdad.

Iraq also aspires to become a transit hub for goods that would be shipped from Asia to Iraq's neighbours and beyond, by connecting to the planned US$ 16 billion GCC railway network (due for completion in 2018), transporting freight to Europe via Turkey.

A vast project under way at the port of Faw in southern Iraq is seen as having global strategic significance. Planned rail routes will take freight from Asia, via Faw and other Iraq ports, through Zakho in Iraqi Kurdistan and on to Europe via Turkey, bypassing the Suez Canal and reinforcing the importance of the Middle East as a major hub of international commerce.

On a regional level, negotiations continue intermittently to establish rail links with other neighbours like Turkey, Jordan and Iran. The expansion of Jordan’s container terminal at the port of Aqaba includes plans for direct rail access to Iraq. A new line is also planned from Basra to Khorramshahr in Iran’s Khuzestan province.

Iraqi Republic Railways estimates that if its planned rail projects were completed at an estimated grand total of more than US$ 60 billion, some 25 million tons of goods could eventually pass through Iraq every year.

However, specific funding has yet to be committed, and financing on such a large scale is unlikely for the time being. In recent years annual allocations by the government for railway projects have not exceeded US$ 200 million.

Nevertheless, Iraq's economy is growing strongly as it has the world fourth largest oil reserves and is one of the fastest-growing suppliers to global oil markets. The International Monetary Fund expects oil exports to increase to US$ 152 billion in 2018, while according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, Iraq’s economic growth will be over 9% on average in 2014-18.

But while in the long term Iraq could well afford to spend the billions of dollars required to revamp its railways, other problems need to be overcome before the rail sector can flourish again. Many traders prefer to transport their goods using private road haulage companies, who offer door‑to‑door services while most train stations are far from city centres. And the volatile security situation in parts of Iraq makes foreign companies wary of signing up to joint rail ventures

Future spending on railway reconstruction and development in Iraq is likely to be far lower than the hundreds of billions of dollars that its GCC neighbours are investing in an integrated railway network as well as light rail and urban metro projects, as they diversify their economies away from oil and gas and also position themselves as regional transport hubs.

But project opportunities in Iraq’s rail sector could still add up to dozens of billions of dollars. As well as the supply of track, rolling stock, signalling and maintenance equipment, “investment in supporting facilities such as inter-modal container terminals and corporatization of operations under a unified management contract continue to be areas of interest for Iraq’s rail system,” according to a 2013 US government guide to Doing Business in Iraq.

Impact of Arms Embargoes in the Middle East and North Africa

Protests in Syria, June 2011

This article was first published in Defence Management Journal, August 2011

Four UN arms embargoes are currently in force in the Middle East and North Africa, targeting Libya and Iran as well as non-government forces in Lebanon and Iraq. A European Union (EU) arms embargo is also in place against Syria.

On 26 February 2011 , UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 1970 imposed an arms embargo against Libya and put in place sanctions on members of Libyan leader Muammar al-Gaddafi's inner circle, while Resolution 1973 adopted on 17 March authorized a no-fly zone over Libya. Previous UN and EU sanctions on Libya, including arms embargoes, had been lifted in 2003 and 2004 after Libya announced that it had ended its nuclear, biological and chemical weapon programmes.

A range of UN sanctions is in place against Iran, including bans on arms sales and transfer of technology. In June 2010, the UNSC approved fresh restrictions, including prohibiting Iran from buying heavy weapons such as attack helicopters and missiles.

The EU imposed an arms sales embargo on Syria on 9 May 2011, as part of efforts intended to force Damascus to end violence against anti-government protesters. The embargo covers weapons, military vehicles and equipment, spare parts and ammunition, and equipment that could be used for internal repression.

Libya embargo violations

The UN and EU arms embargoes are impacting the two countries targeted in 2011 in different ways.

In Syria, whose main arms suppliers are Iran, Russia and China, troops already have plenty of military equipment to use since pro-democracy protests flared in March 2011. The effects of the EU arms embargo are limited, and events are more likely to be affected by international diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions.

However, there are reports that the smuggling of small arms from the black market in Lebanon to Syria has soared. Lebanese arms dealers, most of them working under the protection of political parties, have supplied light and medium weapons not only to Syrians but also to Lebanese fearful of violence spilling over into their country. Syrian activists, for their part, have denied using weapons during protests against government troops.

Tensions have escalated between Syria and its neighbour Turkey, which opened its borders to Syrian refugees fleeing embattled border towns. As a NATO member, Turkey has contributed naval vessels to patrols enforcing the UN arms embargo in Libyan waters, although it not taken part in air raids.

The UN arms embargo on Libya has been more controversial than the EU-Syria one. It has produced sharply opposed views over interpretation, as well as confusion over its precise scope. While some sides maintain that arming the anti-Gaddafi opposition technically violates the embargo, others argue that the UN sanctions apply only to the government.

Despite NATO AWACS planes and more than 20 ships patrolling the Central Mediterranean to enforce the embargo, there have been many reports of rebels bringing weapons into Libya, including within supposed aid shipments, or in small consignments across the border from Tunisia. The rebel forces have also been supplied with weapons by France and Qatar, among others. The French military confirmed that in June, it had air-dropped weapons to rebels fighting government forces in the highlands south of Tripoli, the first time France admitted arming the rebels.

Russia accused France of committing a "crude violation" of the UN weapons embargo by arming the rebels. The UK said diplomatically that, in its view, "the UN resolutions allow, in certain limited circumstances, defensive weapons to be provided".

The UK, along with France and Italy, has deployed military advisers with the rebels, and has sent body armour, uniforms and communications equipment to police officers in rebel-held areas. There have also been reports of US teams operating covertly inside Libya. As for the pro-Gaddafi forces, they have reportedly received missiles and grenade launchers from Iran, as well as 500 "military grade" vehicles supplied by Algeria.

The lack of security across large parts of Libya has also raised fears over weapons falling into the hands of hostile forces in the wider region. The US, other Western governments and Libya's neighbours, notably Algeria, are concerned that stockpiles of weapons and ammunition at former military bases in eastern Libya abandoned by Gaddafi's troops after NATO air strikes could be sold on to militant groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), or organized crime cartels.

Political difficulties

Enforcing arms embargoes invariably involves political as well as practical difficulties.

There are very few provisions for the UN to punish violators, other than normative condemnation. Christian Le Mière, Research Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: "This is particularly true for the world’s major arms exporters, who are all coincidentally the permanent five members of the UN Security Council, with veto power." Generally, veto wielders Russia and China are reluctant to agree with UN sanctions.

In the Libyan case, the sanctions were imposed in great haste and the UNSC did not anticipate the stalemate and potential partition of the country.

With hindsight, "it was not the best idea to impose an arms embargo on the entire country which technically prohibits support to the anti-Gaddafi forces", said Thomas Biersteker, Professor of International Security and Conflict Studies at the Graduate Institute in Geneva.

Arming the Libyan rebels might possibly be defensible in law, based on the letter of the relevant UN resolutions, but doing so is politically very questionable, in the vierws of Pieter Wezeman, Senior Researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). "It will undermine the chances of getting China and Russia to agree on future UN arms embargoes if such a legalistic approach is taken. If it was the intention of the sanctions to allow rebels to receive arms, that should have been stated clearly in the resolutions," he added.

As regards enforcement of embargoes in practice, many prohibited arms are likely to get through controls undetected. Weapons, particularly small arms and light weapons, can easily be hidden in shipments. The volume of global trade makes it impossible to verify the content of every shipping container, while air transport can use falsified documents to mislead regulators about the destination of a particular cargo.

Professor Peter Wallensteen of Uppsala University, one of the authors of a 2007 report on the impacts of UN arms embargoes, believes that they are a good instrument that the international community should save for the right conditions where they are likely to succeed.

"There is often a tendency with this kind of sanctions, as well as with other kinds of sanctions, that they are generated more for domestic reasons, to appeal to public opinion and so on, rather than thinking whether they will be an effective tool," he argues.

Biggest losers

The UN arms embargo on Libya could prove costly to the global arms industry if NATO's campaign is scaled down and Libya becomes mired in a low-intensity civil war.

Russia's Interfax news agency quoted military sources as saying that Russia could lose up to 3.8 billion dollars in confirmed or possible orders as a result of the ban on arms sales to Libya.

According to EU figures, in 2009 member states granted export licences worth 490 million dollars to Libya. Italy was a prime source for border surveillance and security equipment, and several Italian firms had signed or lined up deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

The UK was not a major supplier of weapons to Gaddafi's forces, even before the British government revoked arms export licences this year. Since January 2011, more than 160 export licences for Middle East countries have been revoked, mainly for Libya and Bahrain.

Eight Kings to Form Club of Arab Monarchs

Jordan and Morocco will join the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council in an extended union comprising all eight Arab monarchies.

The Saudi capital Riyadh


Article first published as Eight Kings To Form Club of Arab Monarchs on Technorati.

Leaders of the six Arab Gulf states have welcomed bids by Jordan and Morocco to join the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

The GCC comprises Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, which between them supply about 20% of the world’s oil. It was formed in 1981 to coordinate political and economic policies. More recently, this has extended to defence and security too. In April 2011 the GCC sent troops into Bahrain, where the monarchy faced protests calling for democratic reform.

The GCC leaders' decision will result in an extended alliance including Jordan and Morocco. Both these kingdoms have seen limited protests and calls for political reform and constitutional monarchy during the "Arab Spring". In the GCC itself, as well as the Bahrain unrest, there have been small-scale protests in Oman and Saudi Arabia.

Regional unrest

Expanding the GCC is aimed not only at countering unrest across the Arab world but also strengthening the oil-rich Arabian kingdoms against what they perceive as the regional threat from Iran, their powerful neighbour across the Persian Gulf. They have accused Iran of fomenting the insurrection in Bahrain and of seeking to destabilize Arab regimes.

Iran denies involvement in the protests, saying it only gives Bahrain protesters "moral support".

In the impoverished Republic of Yemen, the GCC has been mediating, to no avail so far, to persuade rival factions to sign a transition deal aimed at ending months of anti-government unrest.

Yemen, which stands in stark contrast to its wealthy neighbours in the Arabian Peninsula, has limited observer status in the GCC.

Arab kings must "stick together"

Although Jordan and Saudi Arabia share close ties through common tribal and family links, the links are less evident between the Gulf states and Morocco, at the other end of the Arab world.

But they do have at least two factors in common - the Arabic language, and the system of monarchy.

The Dubai-based Gulf News cited Shaikh Jaber Al Khalifa, a political analyst, as saying that putting the eight monarchies in the Arab world under a single umbrella would be a positive step. "When political systems with common visions and ideas work together, you should expect good results because they are not held back by divergent political ideologies."

In a separate commentary in Gulf News on 11 May, Sultan Sooud Al Qassemi, a non-resident fellow at the Dubai School of Government, said that after Tunisia and Egypt, the survival of the 12 remaining Arab republican regimes was not guaranteed. The Arab League was "floundering", and the remaining eight Arab monarchies recognized the need to enhance mutual collaboration.

"They have identified the GCC as the ideal body for them to make an immediate and exponential leap in political, military and economic relations," he said.

The London-based independent newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi on 11 May quoted "observers of Gulf affairs", whom the paper did not name, as saying that "the spread of Arab revolutions in the region, which have reached some Gulf countries, has prompted the GCC members to search for new allies following the collapse of the old alliance of so-called 'moderate countries' after the revolution in the country which was the Gulf countries' strongest ally, Egypt…"

Comments on Gulf websites ranged between those welcomed expanding the GCC and those who opposed it, Al-Quds al-Arabi noted: "Some said the military expertise of Jordan and Morocco would benefit the GCC countries, while others complained of the economic conditions in these two countries which might affect 'Gulf prosperity'."

The expansion plan is the strongest assertion of the GCC's foreign policy role in its 30-year history.

"They are leading the counter-revolution and it makes more sense for them to join with other Arab autocracies," Shadi Hamid, director of the Brookings Doha Centre, told Reuters news agency on 10 May.

Some analysts caution that an expanded union could have economic disadvantages for the Gulf.

John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi in Riyadh, in remarks cited by Reuters, said: "Greater economic harmonisation and collaboration is needed on the economic front among the current GCC states before further expansion."